Earlier than I reply, I’ll preface this with the same old disclaimer – I am not psychic, I can not predict the longer term, I’ve no inside info and am solely speculating. Except one thing main modifications, I see one in all two situations taking place.
Situation A: Issues proceed as they’re proper now
I am seeing many cautious and some good indicators, like a small variety of new individuals getting employed at my studio and the reopening of an internship program. I do not see 2026 as a “good” yr, however I really feel like this yr is the place issues principally stabilize and will begin turning (cautiously) towards progress once more close to the tip of the yr. We nonetheless have some axes but to fall – Ubisoft continues to be in technique of breaking itself aside and EA hasn’t gone by means of with the deal to go personal. In Ubi’s case, which will have some ripples this yr. For EA, I do not anticipate main modifications to occur till a yr after the deal goes by means of (just like how Activision did not get hit with the massive layoffs till a yr after the acquisition was full). Nonetheless, apart from these two, the remainder of the trade ought to proceed to chug alongside. I think it will likely be a reasonably conservative yr, with extra content material for already-successful video games, however not a lot else.
Situation B: The AI Bubble pops, taking a big chunk of the American (and world) economic system with it
This state of affairs basically wrecks the worldwide economic system, inflicting layoffs and cost-cutting measures throughout the board. Shopper spending drops as a result of individuals do not have jobs, resulting in a cycle of firms chopping prices (extra layoffs) and folks spending much less. We get one other recession, the scenario sucks for an additional yr or two, after which issues stabilize and begin rising (slowly) once more. The businesses most closely leveraged in AI doubtless die, AI evolves into extra specialised inside tooling and never the form of large public-facing panacea it has been billed as. Video games as soon as once more retreat to the most secure choices for a couple of years.
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